Risk Insights
April 1, 2021

Stratfor 2021 Second Quarter Geopolitical Forecast

Stratfor publishes 4 forecasts each year, quarterly so that globally engaged individuals, Fortune 500 companies, universities, and organizations across an array of industries can plan for the future implications of emerging world events.  

As the second-quarter forecast sets out, “More than a year after the pandemic began, the ongoing COVID-19 crisis will continue to dominate during the second quarter of 2021. With new viral variants and staggered or stalled vaccine rollouts, the global economic rebound will be defined by its inequality and unevenness, with Europe falling short of the United States and China.” 

Issues of trade, diplomacy, technology, security, and economics are also highlighted. 

In the wake of a tense meeting in Alaska and coordinated sanctions on Chinese officials over its treatment of the Uighurs, relations between the United States and China are unlikely to warm anytime soon. This means that U.S.-China progress on trade issues will be slow during the quarter as Trump-era tariffs remain in place and the White House remains tough on China.  

The second quarter of 2020 showed that COVID-19 wasn’t a temporary blip. The virus continues to affect world events a year later and what other trends will drive global politics, economics, and society in the second quarter of 2021.

Effects of the accelerated pace of vaccinations in the US along with Increasing vaccine distribution and new stimulus in the United States indicate prospects for a faster recovery of the global economy than we initially anticipated in our annual forecast. In Q2 concerns emerge over the divergence among economies like the United States and China that are achieving stronger short-term growth and those such as in Europe, that have had renewed COVID-19 outbreaks will rebound more slowly.

Tech companies may begin to feel the backlash from the January 6 Capitol attack. Government and public pressure on the technology and social media companies will continue to expand globally. The United States, Europe, and China will take steps to rein in the power of tech companies, with impacts felt far beyond the quarter. \

With publications like Stratfor’s quarterly forecast, RiskBook, RANE's daily email digest of the latest risk news and analysis, intelligence briefs on cybersecurity, geopolitical risk, and financial crime, webinars, special events, and more, Stratfor and RANE help you *understand the "why" behind what's happening now. Because what happens next is up to you. With new risks and emerging threats increasing in many areas, there is no better time to discover RANE, and let us support your business continuity and risk mitigation efforts. Contact us at https://ranenetwork.com/.

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