Press Releases
January 3, 2024

RANE Releases Annual Geopolitical Forecast for 2024

RANE Releases Annual Geopolitical Forecast for 2024

Global elections will impact 3 billion people and shape policy for the next half decade

New York, NY:  In 2024, a series of local, national, and supranationalelections will take place in countries with a combined population of roughly 3billion, and the leaders who emerge from them will shape internationalrelations for the remainder of this decade. 

That’s one of several conclusions in RANE’s Annual Geopolitical Forecast, identifying the core trends and constraints that will shape global developments in the coming year.

“Geopolitical risk is front and center among corporations and their boards as threats to global businesses continue to rise,” says RANE CEO Steve Roycroft. “Using a proven methodology, our analysts have identified the key geopolitical developments for 2024 and the implications for organizations. Our forecast highlights the intersection of these issues with cyber, security, and compliance risks and provides actionable intelligence to help navigate a complex and evolving environment.”

Among the major trends for 2024:

  • The world prepares for a close U.S. presidential election with implications for the U.S. southern border, a potential return of trade wars, and skepticism about NATO.
  • Israel takes control of Gaza and faces an insurgency, regional instability, diplomatic pushback, and domestic political uncertainty.
  • China's economy slows but not to the point of a financial crisis, with a manageable impact on emerging economies.
  • The war in Ukraine grinds on amid falling Western support for Ukraine and as substantive negotiations with Russia remain elusive.
  • Taiwan’s election is likely to prompt Chinese retaliation, fueling U.S.-China competition and accelerating regional supply chain diversification and defense spending.

Other events RANE notes for global risk in 2024 include policy gridlocks in Germany, Italy, and France; continued supply chain decoupling in the technology sector as U.S. restrictions expand; political uncertainty ahead of SouthAfrican elections and their impact on reforms; and increasing inter-communal tensions around India’s elections.

Visit to learn how to gain access to the complete 2024 Geopolitical Forecast and register for our 2024 Forecast Webinar.

About RANE

RANE is a global risk intelligence company that provides risk andsecurity professionals with critical insights and analysis to betteranticipate, monitor, and respond to emerging threats. For more informationabout RANE, visit



Greg Radner