The proliferation of far-right accelerationist groups like The Base is raising the likelihood that members will conduct an attack that causes significant casualties or physical damage, potentially in support of Russia's sabotage campaign in Ukraine and across Europe. On Dec. 1, the Spanish National Police announced that officers had arrested three people suspected of being members of The Base, a neo-Nazi accelerationist group that the European Union has formally designated a terrorist organization. Spanish officials seized weapons, ammunition, military tactical training equipment, propaganda and other materials from the suspects, who were reportedly "highly radicalized" and "prepared to carry out attacks" after having conducted various preparations. The leader of the cell was allegedly in direct contact with the founder of The Base, Rinaldo Nazzaro, who has for years called on followers across the globe to carry out attacks to hasten the collapse of Western society. The announcement — the first time Spanish authorities have publicized the presence of a far-right accelerationist terrorist cell in the country — came two weeks after The Guardian published an article drawing attention to a far-right accelerationist online network called the Observations Group that is conducting virtual classes on paramilitary training, allegedly in coordination with Nazzaro.
Far-right accelerationist groups have existed for at least a decade, but a spate of recent arrests, announcements and other incidents suggests these groups are becoming more active and expanding their aspirations after prior setbacks. Far-right accelerationist ideology is rooted in U.S. neo-Nazism — especially in texts like "The Turner Diaries" and "Siege" from the latter half of the 20th century — and many contemporary adherents initially made contact on Iron March, a neo-fascist web forum that existed from 2011-17 and laid the groundwork for the founding of many modern far-right accelerationist groups. The first, the Atomwaffen Division, was founded in the United States in 2015 and spawned multiple offshoots across other Western countries. In the years that followed, extremists connected to the Atomwaffen Division and other far-right accelerationist groups carried out a string of murders and attacks against property. These eventually resulted in a significant law enforcement crackdown, resulting in not only the disruption of many other plots — including mass shootings and sabotage of critical infrastructure — but also a decline in the activities of many groups between approximately 2019-21. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, appears to have helped revitalize many far-right accelerationist groups, which, despite the aforementioned fragmentation, have exploited lingering anti-government sentiments, conspiracy theories, popular pushback against minority groups and migrants, and other trends in many Western countries that align with their beliefs. While operating largely as individual cells, participants have also forged new digital connections to disseminate propaganda, share tactics, fundraise and otherwise at least loosely coordinate. This revival has led to a series of arrests in the past two years as these groups, particularly The Base, have ramped up their activities. Alongside an uptick in online propaganda and exhortations for violence across the West, The Base has publicly announced a new operation focused on establishing itself in Ukraine, where it seeks to create a white ethnostate in southwestern Zakarpattia province. As part of this plan, the group has posted photos and videos showing its alleged followers conducting acts of arson, sabotage and vandalism across the country, and in mid-July claimed responsibility (despite a lack of verifying evidence) for the assassination of Ivan Voronych, a senior Ukrainian intelligence officer in Kyiv.
The growth of far-right accelerationist groups is increasing the likelihood that adherents commit a more significant act of violence, like an attack that causes mass casualties and/or major physical damage. While members of groups like The Base have largely carried out violence that has targeted specific individuals or physical locations, mass casualty attacks committed by lone actors with similar beliefs and myriad thwarted plots by far-right accelerationist group members indicate a clear intent to commit more significant acts of violence. Spanish authorities' statements about recent arrests linked to The Base seemingly attest to this trend. As The Base and like-minded groups expand their numbers, coordinate online, physically train in person and take advantage of a surge in far-right populist sentiment across many Western countries, groups will become more likely to overcome past constraints — including poor and/or aspirational planning, as well as effective law enforcement monitoring and disruption — to carry out a more significant act of violence. Such an act could include an indiscriminate, mass casualty attack or a more destructive attack against a physical location, such as a piece of critical infrastructure, as the perpetrators seek to hasten societal collapse. Though The Base and similar groups have recently been more active in Europe than in the United States, federal U.S. authorities' prioritization of combating illegal immigration, far-left extremism and other threats over far-right extremism means both areas, in addition to places like Australia and Canada, are at risk. Far-right accelerationist groups' ties with loose networks like 764 (an extremist movement that has exploited minors and committed real-world violence) and the Order of Nine Angles (a neo-Nazi satanic cult that aims to destabilize society) will also increase the likelihood of larger acts of violence.
The Base's threat to Ukraine and Europe appears poised to grow, especially if it is linked to Russian security services. Regardless of whether the group's members were behind the July assassination of Voronych, Nazzaro has clearly indicated that he wants The Base to prioritize attacks in Ukraine to destabilize the country — ostensibly in pursuit of an enclave for white people in Zakarpattia by "any means necessary" — and has been offering payments in cryptocurrency to do so. According to him, doing so would also enable "facilitation routes" for foreign sympathizers and prospective fighters since the region borders four EU member states: Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. This goal is likely fanciful, especially since The Base presumably only has a small presence in Ukraine. However, Russia continues to demonstrate the ability to offer small amounts of money to recruit Ukrainians (willingly or not) to commit various violent attacks and acts of sabotage across the country, suggesting The Base could aim to do something similar, albeit on a much smaller scale. The group's ability to do so would grow if accusations linking The Base to Russian security services are accurate, as the latter have repeatedly demonstrated both an intent and capability to work through front groups to commit various attacks not only in Ukraine, but also in Europe. To this end, a connection between The Base and Russian security services would also imply that the group would be more likely to commit attacks in support of, or at least aligned with, the Russian-backed sabotage campaign across Europe that shows no signs of meaningfully de-escalating as tensions between Russia and Europe simmer over the war in Ukraine.
