Last week, I had a chance to attend the RISKWORLD 2026 conference in Philadelphia as a speaker on the Iran War. I wasn’t the only one there mentioning the Hormuz Crisis, as it was top of mind for many who were still trying to internalize the impact of this massive disruption on their businesses. But RISKWORLD is largely about insurance, and insurers, while acknowledging the importance of geopolitics, lacked the common language to integrate the growing field of geopolitics into their work.
In my session, "Nations, States and Imperatives: How Geopolitical Pillars Shape Risk," I wanted to push the audience beyond the headlines. While many insurers are focused on the immediate military and economic tremors in the Middle East—particularly with fresh drone and missile strikes reported just this week—my talk focused on the deeper structure and future trajectory of the Hormuz Crisis. The takeaway for the room was that Hormuz is not just a military chokepoint or flash-in-the-pan news event; it is a structural stress test for the international system that has been, until now, led by the United States. I analyzed how these shocks aren't just "events" to be reacted to, but indicators of shifting geopolitical pillars that will dictate global trade – and the risks to it – for the next decade. And I hinted at the future in which America and its ideals are no longer central to the international system, with all the subsequent changes that will mean for business.
Beyond the main stage, I had the pleasure of appearing on the Brick by Brick podcast with Jason Reichl for a live recording session. We took a step back to look at the evolution of geopolitics as a professional industry. It’s a maturing field, and growing, but we’re still working on how to communicate our ideas into a corporate environment. It’s not that there isn’t demand; it’s that we haven’t developed a common language for the industry to mature into where it belongs.
Reflecting on the week, the most significant observation was the reactive nature of the industry. People talk about geopolitics the way they talk about a hurricane or earthquake; something that can’t be stopped and can only moderately be planned for. But geopolitics is the study of people, who in their vast numbers behave in relatively predictable ways. And many organizations are intensely interested in the "what" but remain unsure of the "how"—specifically, how to apply geopolitical insights to actual decision-making.
There is a widespread blind spot among executives who often view politics as either an apocalyptic outlier or a partisan distraction. This leads to oversimplified assumptions in business decisions, particularly regarding energy outlooks and long-term infrastructure investments.
At RANE, we are working to bridge this gap by developing a new language for the insurance sector. We are finding that geopolitical shocks resonate most when framed as tangible inputs for actuarial models—specifically their impact on:
The conference highlighted that while the insurance world is certainly listening, the burden is on us to provide the forward-looking, novel perspectives that differentiate structural analysis from mere news reporting.
Ryan Bohl is a Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE. Contact RANE to connect with Ryan directly.
