RANE analysts recently walked webinar attendees through their outlook for the third quarter of 2026, covering everything from the fragile Iran ceasefire to a packed calendar of tariff deadlines and Latin American elections. Here are the highlights.
The 60-day memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran is already showing cracks — the analysts pointed to a recent cycle of an Iranian strike on a container ship, US retaliation against onshore facilities, and further Iranian strikes across the Gulf. Even so, the team expects this pattern of periodic flare-ups, rather than a return to the intense fighting seen earlier in the year, to define the quarter. A durable nuclear agreement within the 60-day window is seen as unlikely, though both sides have incentives to extend the truce through quarter's end.
The wildcard to watch is Israel, which analysts expect to actively work to undermine the negotiations by lobbying US politicians and creating friction points (including around Lebanon) that could provoke Iranian escalation.
On the economic side, partial shipping resumption through the Strait of Hormuz should stabilize oil and petrochemical markets (Brent could settle near $80 or lower), but LNG and helium supply from Qatar — along with fertilizer shipments critical to planting seasons in places like India — face a bumpier recovery due to the operational realities of restarting LNG terminals.
With fuel shipment restrictions having severely damaged Cuba's electricity grid and medical supply chain, analysts assess a high likelihood of US military action targeting senior Cuban officials — similar in scale to the operation against former Venezuelan leadership earlier this year. Unlike Venezuela, though, analysts noted Cuba currently lacks an obvious "Delcy Rodriguez"-type successor figure the US could rally around, which complicates prospects for a fast political transition. A poorly executed operation carries real migration risk for Florida, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Mexico.
Relatedly, the earthquake that recently struck Venezuela was framed as a double-edged sword: an opening for expanded US investment and closer ties with the Rodriguez government, but also a moment of political vulnerability that internal factions could exploit.
While Ukraine has gained real momentum pressuring Russia — including strikes reaching into Crimea and Moscow-area refineries — analysts flagged air defense, specifically countering Russian ballistic missiles, as the critical pressure point heading into winter. Ukraine has gotten much better at intercepting drones, but remains heavily reliant on US-made Patriot interceptors for ballistic missile threats, and new alternative systems won't be battlefield-ready this quarter.
Diplomatically, both Washington and Moscow appear to be losing interest in near-term negotiations. Notably, the analysts argued that time is no longer working in Russia's favor the way Moscow assumes — Ukrainian resilience remains intact, and Russia's leverage is seen as gradually eroding rather than growing.
Following the Supreme Court's February ruling against many of the "Liberation Day" country-specific tariffs, the administration is shifting to Section 301 trade authority — a more procedurally involved tool requiring public comment periods. Practically, this means the gap between a tariff threat and actual implementation is stretchingt o 30–60 days, creating more room for negotiation before tariffs take effect.
Other trade fronts to watch this quarter:
● USMCA: No final deal is expected on extending the agreement (current expiration is 2036), with negotiations likely centering on tightening auto-sector rules of origin. Canada may be more willing to accept stricter thresholds than Mexico.
● US-China: Both sides appear focused on managing the relationship ahead of a potential Xi Jinping visit to the US around late September, with neither side eager to trigger another rare-earth export crisis. A key deadline to watch is November, when the current truce on export controls expires.
● AIand tech competition: Export-control-style restrictions on advanced AI models were cited as a factor that could inadvertently help China narrow the AI gap, alongside growing cybersecurity concerns as more capable AI systems become more widely accessible.
● Colombia: Far-right candidate de la Espriella's presidential win (taking office August 7) is expected to bring a harder security posture against armed groups, potentially triggering a violent scramble by those groups to entrench their positions before the transition. A closer relationship with Washington is anticipated.
● Brazil: Heading into an early-October election, incumbent Lula da Silva faces Senator Flavio Bolsonaro amid a financial fraud scandal. Analysts expect US-Brazil relations to cool somewhat as the election approaches, given the Trump administration's evident preference for a Bolsonaro win.
● El Niño as a cross-cutting risk: Beyond Colombia's agricultural and infrastructure sectors, analysts flagged that El Niño-driven economic strain could fuel recruitment into armed and criminal groups across the region — a risk compounded by governments less inclined toward social spending.
This summary is based on RANE's Q3 2026 forecast webinar featuring Matthew Bey, Dana Masalimova, and Caroline Hammer. Contact RANE to learn how to get access to the full quarterly forecast report.
